Barack is So Over

10Jul08

Despite the media glow around Barack and the general assumption that he will be the next president, there is a remarkable phenomenon that goes under discussed – Barack’s post-Wright slump continues. He appears to have been stalled since mid-March.

As has been mentioned here often, the Democrats have a huge structural advantage in this election – the nation is sick of the GOP, and eager to throw them out of office. Congressional polls show that the Democrats should substantially increase their majorities in both houses.

In generic polls (where voters are asked do they want unnamed Democrats or Republicans to win, they generally favor the Democrats by about 15 points. So why does Barack continue to come up short? You would expect him to be dominating in the polls right now with leads of 15, 20 or even 25 points.

The two big pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen, do a daily tracking poll. Each days numbers represent the most recent three days of polling – each day a new day’s numbers are added in, and the oldest day is dropped. This buffers the results so single day anomalies don’t result in distracting swings.

Today’s results? Gallup shows Barack with a 3 point lead, up from 2% the last couple of days. And Rasmussen also gets a 3% point differential (with leaners), down from 4 points:

Obama leads 48% to 45%. This is the first time that McCain has been within three points of Obama with or without leaners since June 20.

The bad results now continue a trend that had Barack winning just 3 contests against Hillary since the Wright scandal broke in March – North Carolina by 14, Oregon by 18, and Montana by 15. This performance came after the nation knew that Barack would secure the nomination, and you would have expected voters to be abandoning Hillary’s failed bid and flocking to Barack.

That was not the case. Hillary won 6 primaries after Wright, including West Virginia by 49, Kentucky by 35, Puerto Rico by 36, and Pennsylvania by 10.

In the fall, the country will get to hear, in depth, the rest of the story about Barack’s disturbing political mafia, his true liberal politics, and the full extent of his lack of qualifications for the job. Leaving him with no where to go but down.



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