Barack’s Slump

20Jul08

The trip to the Middle East is well timed for Barack, who can use the positive media attention that the major networks are eager to provide. The latest polls indicate his campaign is totally stalled, with Rasmussen showing a tie.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 43% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46%

Gallup has Barack up by just 2%.

As a result of the intimidation that voters are said to feel when being polled about minority candidates, isn’t it safe to assume that Barack is polling better than what’s real, and that his race, concerns over his links to Reverend Wright, his inexperience, and his patriotism would combine, were the election to be held today, to lower his tally by several points?

Susan Estrich, who ran the Dukakis campaign 20 years ago, sites the Bradley Effect (voters lying to pollsters) as one possible reason Democrats should be depressed.

…the fact that my old candidate Mike Dukakis was running better 20 years ago against George Bush than Obama is today against John McCain makes me nervous. It should be a sign to some of the whiners on my side, still worried about whether Obama is liberal enough or whether he’s doing enough to help Hillary, that it’s time to stop whining and start working. Otherwise, it will be hello President McCain.

Here’s another ominous stat for the Democrat – and it may be where reaction to Obama’s “newness” may lie:

Obama leads McCain in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. But when asked whether each candidate can handle the responsibilities of being commander in chief, eight in 10 said McCain could, compared with 55% for Obama.

In a recent Rasmussen tally, 41% were concerned over Obamas lack of experience, substantially more than the 24% worried about McCain’s age. These indicators may be linked to the reasons that his campaign has been stalled since the emergence of Jeremiah Wright in mid-March.



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