Barack Weaker?

25Jul08

Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, each with three days of data ending Wednesday, show no bump for Barack, but, instead, a tightening of the race over the week of Barack’s trip. A Fox News poll, taken Tuesday and Wednesday, shows the race in a virtual tie. The slim Obama leads look like this:

Rasmussen – 3%
Gallup – 2%
Fox – 1%

Gallup had Barack up 6% earlier in the week. Rasmussen had the race tied on Tuesday.

Voters aren’t as convinced about Barack as they were about John Kerry four years ago, throwing into question his status as the Divine.

One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 92% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 8% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 86% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 14% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.

Maybe Germany will start to move things for Barack, but right now his weakness continues.

Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a two-point lead (Rasmussen) over George W. Bush (three points with leaners). That was down slightly from the day before when the Massachusetts Senator reached the high-water mark for his campaign heading into the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).

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