Here’s the Bump

25Jul08

Barack seems to have gotten a bump from the trip. The Rasmussen poll, which showed him up 3% yesterday, now shows Obama with a 5 point lead.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows a bounce for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. Just three days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners).

Barack had been running below his normal range over the past couple of weeks, but today’s number are more in line with the race was until the beginning of July.

This is the first time that Obama has enjoyed a five point advantage since July 8. It’s also the first time he has reached the 49% level of support since that date. In June, Obama’s support stayed within a point of the 49% level virtually every day and the Democrat typically led by about five percentage points.

Does this represent a permanent change in the race, or just a natural response to the media focus which will fade with time?

The race has been closer over the past couple of weeks (see recent daily results). As with any bounce in the polls, it will take a few days to determine whether it reflects a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise.



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