Gallup Uptick Continues

27Jul08

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama now leads John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 24-26.

Barack’s bounce appears to still be on the upswing, at least among registered voters tallied by Gallup. Rasmussen still has the race at 5 points. Either way, Barack has regained the position he had in early July, which had been fading of late.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. McCain’s numbers are up a point from yesterday while Obama’s remain unchanged. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%.

The contrast between the polls is worth noting. The Gallup bounce is bigger, presumably because voters who are less likely to vote are included. Rasmussen tests for a respondent’s likelihood of voting, which buffers the impact because those likely to vote are, we assume, better informed.

These numbers could be the start of a longterm trend in Barack’s favor, or perhaps they’ll start moving downward this week. That remains to be seen. But the power of having a purposeful campaign, something that John McCain still lacks, is well displayed by this movement.



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