Two Points

12Jan10

The new Rasmussen poll shows that Martha Coakley has lost 7 points of her lead over Scott Brown, the soaring Republican and next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts.

The Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election has gotten tighter, but the general dynamics remain the same.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley attracting 49% of the vote while her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, picks up 47%.

I was at a Brown event tonight in Salem, with a couple of hundred people who spent $100 to support the candidate. The energy, and joy in the room, was unheard of in Republican politics in Massachusetts. I didn’t go into the $1,000 per person event at the same location.

Three percent (3%) say they’ll vote for independent candidate Joe Kennedy, and two percent (2%) are undecided. The independent is no relation to the late Edward M. Kennedy, whose Senate seat the candidates are battling to fill in next Tuesday’s election.

Scott is dominating Coakley in every category of voter except Democrats who are likely voters.

Coakley is supported by 77% of Democrats while Brown picks up the vote from 88% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%. To be clear, this lead is among unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the special election.

Other GOP candidates in the house included Charlie Baker, the next Governor of Massachusetts, and Bill Hudak, who will be taking over the 6th Congressional seat come November. Former Lt. Governor Kerry Healey was also in attendance.

A week ago, the overall results showed Coakley leading by a 50% to 41% margin. The closeness of the race in heavily Democratic Massachusetts has drawn increasing national interest, and Brown made it clear in the final candidate debate last night that a vote for him is a vote to stop the national health care plan Democrats are pushing in Congress.

The mood in the room was like that at an election night victory celebration. Scott said he raised $100,000 tonight in Salem, $900,000 today, and $1.3 million yesterday. Nice.

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