Not Yet

10Mar10

Is the health reform vote resolved? Michael Barone doesn’t think so, and he sees a difficult road for Pelosi to get it through the house.

Are there enough votes in the House to pass the Senate’s health-care bill? As of today, it’s clear there aren’t. House Democratic leaders have brushed aside White House calls to bring the bill forward by March 18, when President Barack Obama heads to Asia. Nevertheless, analysts close to the Democratic leadership tell me they’re confident the leadership will find some way to squeeze out the 216 votes needed for a majority.

The newspaper The Hill shows many in congress still undecided.

Undecided (80)
Jason Altmire (Pa.) * Many view Altmire as key to passage. He said on Fox News he has “open mind.” Voted no in committee and on floor but bottom line is that his yes vote is gettable

Joe Baca (Calif.) * (Y) Must have for leadership
Brian Baird (Wash.) Retiring member who bucked party on Iraq war surge
Melissa Bean (Ill.) (Y) Conservative Democrat well positioned for midterm election
Marion Berry (Ark.) * (Y) Has been critical of the president since announcing his retirement
Sanford Bishop (Ga.) * (Y) Favors Stupak provision
Tim Bishop (N.Y.) (Y) Must have vote for leadership
John Boccieri (Ohio) * GOP target
Rick Boucher (Va.)
GOP target
Allen Boyd (Fla.) Facing primary challenge

Dennis Cardoza (Calif.) * (Y) Secured language for district before last year’s vote
Chris Carney (Pa.) * (Y) A no vote here would be a setback for leadership
Ben Chandler (Ky.) * Keeps cards close to vest; voted no in November
Jim Cooper (Tenn) * (Y) Has had up-and-down relationship with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)
Jim Costa (Calif.) * (Y) Secured project for his district before November vote
Jerry Costello (Ill.) * (Y) Was a late yes in the fall
Joe Courtney (Y) Wary of excise tax, but likely yes
Henry Cuellar (Texas) * (Y) Supported health bill and climate change, surprising some on Capitol Hill
Kathleen Dahlkemper (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target. Her yes vote is key to passage
Joe Donnelly (Ind.) * (Y) Among the Stupak dozen — will vote no unless abortion language in Senate bill is changed, according to The Rochester Sentinel
Mike Doyle (Pa.)
* (Y) Must have vote for leadership; not politically vulnerable
Steve Driehaus (Ohio) * (Y) In tossup race in November
Bob Etheridge (N.C.) * (Y) Passed up Senate run
Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) * (Y) Senate hopeful
Bill Foster (Ill.) (Y) GOP target
Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.) (Y) GOP target
Bart Gordon (Tenn.) * Retiring committee chairman
Raul Grijalva (Ariz.) (Y) Despite many threats, Arizona liberal expected to vote yes
John Hall (N.Y.)
(Y) Democratic leaders may lose other Dems from N.Y., but need to keep Hall on board
Debbie Halvorson (Ill.) (Y) Politically vulnerable, but favored to win her reelection race
Baron Hill (Ind.) * (Y) Passed up Senate run
Jim Himes (Conn.) (Y) Must have vote for leadership. Likely yes
Steve Kagen (Wis.) (Y) Told Fox 11 in Wisconsin that he prefers more incremental approach; doesn’t trust Senate
Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target
Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) * (Y) Voted with leadership first time around, but doesn’t toe the party line
Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio) (Y) In tossup race this November
Ron Kind (Wis.) (Y) Represents competitive district. Voted against bill in committee
Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.) (Y) GOP target
Ron Klein (Fla.) (Y) GOP target
Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.) Easily won her race in 2008; her 2010 race will be tighter
Jim Langevin (R.I.)
* (Y) Langevin’s seat not in danger this fall. He has previously fended off primary challenges
Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) * (Y) Will not vote for abortion language in Senate bill, but has other concerns as well
Dan Maffei (N.Y.) (Y) Former Ways and Means aide is seen as gettable
Betsy Markey (Colo.)
Was a late no last time. In early March, Markey declined to be interviewed by Denver Post on her position on bill. Likely target for Democratic leaders
Mike McMahon (N.Y.) Was a late no last fall
Jerry McNerney (Calif.) (Y) Waiting for final language
Michael Michaud (Maine) * (Y) Likely yes
Walt Minnick (Idaho) Probable no vote
Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) (Y) GOP target
Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) * (Y) In November, seat was considered safe. Now, he’s in a tight race
Dennis Moore (Kan.) (Y) Retiring this year
Chris Murphy (Conn.) (Y) GOP target
Scott Murphy (N.Y.) Reelection race looks good, for now
Richard Neal (Mass.) * (Y) Better vote yes if he wants to take Ways and Means gavel; fan of Stupak language
Glenn Nye (Va.) In tossup race
Jim Oberstar (Minn.) * (Y) Wants to vote yes, but also wants Stupak language
David Obey (Wis.) * (Y) Waiting to review bill language; likely yes
Solomon Ortiz (Texas) * (Y) Was a late yes last time around
Bill Owens (N.Y.) (Y) One of first votes in Congress was “yes” on House health bill; media reports have him as undecided
Tom Perriello (Va.) * (Y) In tossup race this fall
Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) * (Y) Voted against bill in committee, and for it on the House floor
Nick Rahall (W.Va.) * (Y) Another panel chairman on the fence
Ciro Rodriguez (Texas) * (Y) Considered by Cook Political Report to “likely” retain seat
Tim Ryan (Ohio) * (Y) Opposes anti-abortion rights
John Salazar (Colo.) * (Y) GOP target
Loretta Sanchez (Calif.) (Y) Was a late yes in November
Mark Schauer (Mich.) (Y) In tossup race this fall
Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) (Y) In tossup race, according to Cook Political Report
Heath Shuler (N.C.) * Doesn’t hold his tongue when he opposes Democratic leaders
Vic Snyder (Ark.) * (Y) Not seeking reelection. Seen as likely yes
Zack Space (Ohio) * (Y) Voted yes in committee and yes on the floor last year
John Spratt (S.C.) * (Y) Budget Committee chairman is in competitive reelection race
Bart Stupak (Mich.) * (Y) More optimistic about brokering a deal on abortion with House leaders, but time is running out
Betty Sutton (Ohio) (Y) GOP target
John Tanner (Tenn.) * House deputy whip not running for reelection, but he still will need to be convinced to get to yes. Voted no in committee and on floor
Dina Titus (Nev.) (Y) One of three female House Democrats to vote no last November. She also voted no at committee level
Paul Tonko (N.Y.) (Y) Waiting for CBO numbers
Charlie Wilson (Ohio)
* (Y) Considered less vulnerable this fall than other Ohio Democrats
David Wu (Ore.) (Y) Was undecided for three hours during 2003 Medicare drug vote, then voted with the GOP
John Yarmuth (Ky.) (Y) Considered a team playe. Likely yes

* — Voted for Stupak amendment in November
(Y) — Voted yes in November

Note:  Spokesmen for Berry, Driehaus, Lipinksi and Stupak said their bosses will vote against the bill unless the Stupak language is adopted. Stupak has said a dozen lawmakers who voted for the House measure could change their votes based on the abortion provisions.

The Hill also shows 24 Dems leaning toward voting no to ObamaCare. Budget analysis from the CBO should be out soon, and that might cause the sudden solidification of some undecideds one way or the other.

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